Tokugawa Nariaki of the Mito family had the shogun’s anger somewhat ease, and he was granted release from confinement (a punishment restricting him from going out). It was the night of August 1, Kōka 3 (1846). Nariaki wrote a long letter to Anekōji, a senior lady-in-waiting of the Ōoku (the place where the shogun’s wife and children lived). At the end he added a line about his disordered brushwork on a sleepless night. He could not touch his domain’s politics, and remained confined to his residence at Komagome.
A year earlier, Nariaki had had Abe Masahiro show his own writing, the Meikun Ippanshō, to shogun Tokugawa Ieyoshi. Thinking that alone was not enough, this time he chose the route through the Ōoku. Nariaki and Ieyoshi were brothers-in-law, both having taken wives from the Arisugawa family. Anekōji was sisters with Hana no i, a senior lady-in-waiting of the Mito family, and Tokutomi Sohō writes that this connection was the channel to the shogun.
The letter moves from seasonal greetings to its main subject. Nariaki appealed that he had foreseen the arrival of foreign ships 30 years earlier, but had no standing from which to speak of it. He wrote that after succeeding to the family headship he had petitioned both his superiors and the senior councilors, but was not heeded, and it came to his retirement. He also wrote that now he could not sleep at night, his head ached every morning, and he even ran a fever. He argued that if Ryūkyū and Ezo were taken, Japan would be squeezed from north and south, and Edo would starve if rice supplies stopped for even one month.
There was only one way to prevent this. He stated that he had been telling Abe Masahiro for 10 years that the way was to build ships more formidable than the enemy’s and drive off the foreign ships. He also wrote that, looking at a map of the world, Japan was nothing but a small island. Further, he included a passage saying that the realm belonged to the people of the realm, not to the Tokugawa alone. Sohō points out that this idea was growing among the discerning people of the time.
In a postscript, he warned that if trade began at Ryūkyū, even faith would find its way in. Sohō reads into this Nariaki’s suspicion that Satsuma was secretly dealing with foreigners. On June 6, Kōka 3, Shimazu Nariakira, entrusted by the shogunate with handling the matter of foreign ships at Ryūkyū, was on his way back to his domain. The two men were on terms of lending and borrowing books, but Sohō sees that they did not fully trust each other.
The reply was dated the evening of August 6. Anekōji conveyed each point of the letter to the shogun just as it was, and Ieyoshi, finding it reasonable, ordered an investigation into driving off the ships. Nariaki soon sent further memorials one after another, comparing the huge foreign ships with their own small fishing boats in numbers. But 2 years passed. In Kaei 2, when Abe Masahiro sought opinions, there was much opposition, and Nariaki’s plan was never carried out.
One can trace, along with Sohō’s commentary, what was written in that single letter which reached the shogun through the Ōoku.
The first day of the eighth month of Kōka 3 (1846).Original
Even as the night grew late, the lamp did not go out.
The addressee was Anekōji, a senior lady-in-waiting of the Ōoku.Original
A phrase was appended at the end.Original
It meant that the handwriting was disordered, written on a sleepless night.OriginalOriginal
行とどかぬ私、御覽のごとく惡筆、別而御分りかねも遊し候御事、恐入候
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryApproaching the Shogun through the Ōoku
At this time, the shogun’s anger had somewhat cooled, and Nariaki had been permitted to end his confinement.Original
But he was unable to involve himself in the domain’s administration.Original
He remained confined to his residence in Komagome.OriginalOriginal
A year earlier, he had already had his own work, the Meikun Ippanshō, brought to the eyes of shogun Tokugawa Ieyoshi through senior councilor Abe Masahiro.Original
This was the path through the front channel.
He must have thought that this alone was not enough.
This time, he used the Ōoku as a back channel.OriginalOriginal
彼は表面より閣老阿部正弘の手を以て、其の著明君一斑抄を、將軍家慶の上覽に入れたが
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryNariaki and Tokugawa Ieyoshi had both taken wives from the Arisugawa family.Original
They were brothers-in-law.Original
Anekōji, the most powerful figure in the Ōoku, was sisters with Hana no i, a senior lady-in-waiting of the Mito house.Original
Through this connection, Nariaki always kept open a channel of communication with the shogun, Tokutomi Sohō writes.OriginalOriginal
Nariaki was “by no means a man who would set aside what he had resolved to do after just one or two attempts.”Original
He was not a man who would give up on what he had resolved after one or two failures, Tokutomi Sohō says.OriginalOriginal
The Threat of Foreign Ships and the Case for Shipbuilding
The letter begins with a seasonal greeting.Original
Amid the lingering summer heat, he expresses joy that the two lords—shogun Ieyoshi and heir apparent Iesada—were in good spirits.Original
From there, he moves straight to the main subject.OriginalOriginal
Please consult the original page images for this source.
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryRumors of foreign ships since Kōka 1, the year before last, must surely have reached the inner quarters as well.Original
He himself writes, “From thirty years ago, I have been aware that things would surely come to this.”Original
He says that thirty years earlier, he had already realized this would surely happen.Original
But as one still living as an unestablished heir, he had no means to speak up.Original
After unexpectedly succeeding to headship of the Mito house, he had, without regard for the risk, spoken up both to his superiors and to the senior councilors.Original
Even so, his views were not taken up, and in the end he was forced into retirement.OriginalOriginal
He might well have given up by now, Nariaki writes.Original
Since then, for the past ten years, he had been giving thought to the matter without anyone noticing.Original
Now he could not sleep at night, had headaches every morning, and sometimes even ran a fever.OriginalOriginal
The picture of crisis he draws is concrete.Original
If Ryūkyū and Ezo were seized and foreigners built outposts there, Japan would be caught in a pincer from north and south.Original
Edo was a city of “several million people.”Original
If the shipment of rice were delayed even a single month, many would starve to death, and all of Edo would erupt in turmoil.Original
If foreigners attacked at such a moment, the city would be taken with no means of resistance.Original
“As clear as looking now into a mirror.”Original
Nariaki declares that it is as plain as if seen reflected in a mirror right now.OriginalOriginal
There was only one way to prevent it.
To build ships even more formidable than those of the enemy, and drive off the foreign vessels.Original
Ships that cross tens of thousands of leagues of sea must have some weakness somewhere.Original
He says victory for our side would be certain.Original
He had been saying this to Abe Masahiro for ten years already, yet still there had been no response.OriginalOriginal
The Realm Belongs to the People of the Realm
Nariaki urges Anekōji to look at a map of the world.Original
“To someone like you, Japan may seem a great country, but it is merely a single small island.”Original
You probably think Japan is a great country, but it is nothing more than one small island.Original
The foreigners had already taken the great countries of the world, and only Japan remained.OriginalOriginal
Next year, in Kōka 4, Ryūkyū would be in danger.Original
Next would come Ezo and Matsumae.Original
While deliberations dragged on, both Ryūkyū and Ezo would be taken, and Japan as a whole would be seized as well.OriginalOriginal
Here Nariaki offers the example of a fire in the main citadel.Original
Until that very evening, no one had ever dreamed that the main citadel would burn.Original
Once the fire broke out, even if one woke to it, it could not be put out, and in an instant it turned to ashes.Original
A building could later be restored by rebuilding it.Original
But “once this realm is handed over to the barbarians, it can never be taken back a second time.”Original
Once the realm was handed to the foreigners, it could never be reclaimed.OriginalOriginal
Then follows a startling passage.Original
“The realm is the realm of the people of the realm, not a realm belonging to the Tokugawa alone.”Original
The realm belongs to the people of the realm, he said, and is not the Tokugawa’s alone.Original
Empress Jingū, though a female sovereign, crossed the sea and took Korea.Original
If the Tokugawa realm, while remaining within the country, cannot fend off foreigners and is taken from them, there will be no facing Amaterasu Ōmikami or Tōshōgū.OriginalOriginal
日本德川の天下にて、萬々一御奪れ被遊候ては、天照皇大神宮御初へ御對し被遊候て、不被爲濟は勿論、左までには及不申候とも、此太平の天下を御亂し被遊候ては、東照宮へ御對し被遊候て、如何にも御申譯は無之候
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryTokutomi Sohō regards this passage as weighty.Original
The language is “quite fierce and urgent,” and Nariaki must have thought that nothing less would move the shogun’s heart, Sohō writes.Original
At the same time, Sohō points out that the idea that the realm belongs to the man who holds it was a thought that, though not yet common at the time, was gradually fermenting among the learned.Original
Nariaki said this for the sake of the Tokugawa main house, but others did not necessarily feel the same.Original
Sohō writes that even a single reading of this passage suggests that the popular sentiment which had regarded serving the Tokugawa shogun as a matter fixed by birth had begun to waver somewhat.OriginalOriginal
While You Deliberate, the Blossoms Will Scatter
Nariaki further cites an anecdote about Tōshōgū.Original
One evening, Tokugawa Ieyasu dreamed that he held the character “kore” (this) in his left hand.Original
A diviner told him that if the character “kore” were broken apart, it read “the man beneath the sun,” an auspicious sign of grasping the realm.Original
However, it was said that though he would hold it through the fifth generation, from the sixth generation the hand would begin to open, and by reason past the tenth generation it would be entirely open, so this point was important.Original
In both Japan and China, when two or three hundred years of peace continue, military preparedness is neglected, and it is then that other countries invade.Original
Therefore, Nariaki says, he wishes that even now, once again, they begin to grasp the character “kore.”OriginalOriginal
Please consult the original page images for this source.
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryHe cites a single poem.Original
It means that while one sings of spring, saying how peaceful, how peaceful it is, the blossoms will have scattered.Original
If days are spent in deliberation like the Odawara council, it will not be in time.Original
Before the ships are completed, both Ryūkyū and Ezo will be taken.OriginalOriginal
He also wrote, do not rely on the gods.
Even when Ieyasu spoke of the foreign invasion of Kōan 4, his view was that one could not rely on divine winds.Original
Even if the gods protect us, we must protect ourselves by human strength.Original
In the postscript there is one more urgent point.Original
If trade begins in Ryūkyū, the Ryūkyū people will convert to Catholicism, and in time Ōsumi and Satsuma too will come to believe in it secretly.OriginalOriginal
Sohō reads Nariaki’s intent here.Original
Nariaki suspected that Satsuma had secretly begun trading with foreigners through Ryūkyū.Original
On the 6th day of the 6th month of Kōka 3 (1846), the heir apparent Shimazu Nariakira, having been entrusted by the shogunate with handling the matter of foreign ships arriving at Ryūkyū and demanding trade, was on his way home.Original
Sohō says that the meaning of Nariaki’s letter becomes clear of itself when set against this affair.Original
Nariaki and Nariakira lent and borrowed Dutch books and exchanged gifts, appearing outwardly close.Original
But Nariaki regarded Satsuma with suspicion, as though it harbored some hidden design, and Nariakira too privately did not fully trust Nariaki’s character.Original
Nariaki was, among the daimyo of the time, unmatched in intelligence, wide knowledge, and many talents, but “he was fond of scheming, a man of duplicity.”Original
Sohō remarks that one cannot blame the shogunate alone for regarding him as a dangerous man not to be trusted.OriginalOriginal
The Reply on the Evening of the Sixth Day of the Eighth Month
The reply came quickly.Original
Anekōji’s letter is dated the evening of the sixth day of the eighth month.OriginalOriginal
She wrote that she herself could only listen to the rumors with awe, but felt it would not do to keep such a matter concerning his welfare to herself alone.Original
Today, since the shogun was at leisure, she said she had reported everything just as it was written in the letter.Original
Shogun Ieyoshi acknowledged it, saying “it is thought quite reasonable.”Original
This was the reply, that it seemed reasonable.OriginalOriginal
This morning he also looked over the document at the audience hall.Original
Sohō surmises that this refers to the letter Nariaki gave to Abe Masahiro.Original
And “he has ordered that the matter of driving them off be investigated quickly.”Original
It was said that he had been ordered to look into the matter of expulsion promptly.Original
It was also conveyed that what had been reported within would not be announced outside, but that points noticed would be announced in due course.Original
Anekōji herself wrote frankly, “as for the matter of driving them off, we ourselves do not understand it at all.”Original
She said she had no idea at all what the expulsion was about.OriginalOriginal
Sohō views it this way.Original
Shogun Ieyoshi read through both of Nariaki’s letters entirely and ordered an investigation into the matter of expulsion.Original
The expulsion in question must refer to abolishing the Tenpō 13 order easing the provision of firewood and water, and restoring the Bunsei 8 expulsion order.Original
Even if the shogun did not personally care for Nariaki, he must have recognized him as a reliable relation in case of emergency.OriginalOriginal
Nariaki, of boundless energy, sent off another letter the moment he received the reply.Original
This time it was a memorial.Original
Sohō emphasizes that the aim was not simple expulsion.Original
Rather, it was the building of large ships and heavy guns, especially large ships.Original
Nariaki presses his point with numbers.Original
The foreign ships were “fifty or sixty ken or more in length, with a hundred large guns and two to three thousand medium and small guns.”Original
Hulls exceeding fifty or sixty ken carried a hundred cannon and two or three thousand medium and small guns, and some ships were sheathed in black iron.Original
Against this, our side has only “fishing boats not even seven or eight ken long.”Original
Even if such fishing boats, barely seven or eight ken long, were borrowed, firing a single cannon would break the boat apart.Original
With this, certain victory could hardly be expected.Original
Nariaki argued that the proper order was first to strengthen defenses at home, and only after that to order the expulsion of foreign ships.OriginalOriginal
夷狄の船は、五六十間餘、大筒も百梃、中小の筒も二三千餘も備へ、黑鐵にて張り候船も御座候處へ、わづか七八間に足り不申漁船等借用ひ、大筒打候得ば、直に船やぶれ候位の危き船へ乘候ては、迚も必勝相成兼候譯に御座候へば
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryThe Character “Ze” That Must First Be Grasped
Tokutomi Sohō records what followed, citing the Tokugawa Yoshinobu-kō den.Original
The shogun considered the gist of the memorandum reasonable, and replied that he would present a document once the investigation into the policy of expulsion was complete.Original
But two years passed with nothing happening.Original
In Kaei 2 (1849), Abe Masahiro asked the various officials for their opinions on whether the Bunsei-era expulsion order should be reinstated.Original
This was prefaced by the fact that black ships frequently passed near Tsushima, Nanbu, Tsugaru, and Matsumae, that American ships had come to Nagasaki, and that British ships had come to Uraga and Shimoda, even conducting surveys there.Original
However, many opposed reinstating it, and as for Nariaki’s opinion, it “in the end never found an opportunity to be carried out.”Original
No opportunity for its implementation ever came in the end.Original
Tokutomi Sohō writes that while acknowledging Nariaki drew much criticism, his “ceaseless, tireless exertion” was something the daimyo lined up like dolls in an age of peace could never have dreamed of matching.Original
The hurried writing of a sleepless night did indeed reach the shogun’s desk.Original
The shogun said, “Indeed.”Original
Even so, no ships were built, and the blossoms scattered amid deliberation.Original
Whose hand would now take hold again of the character “ze” that Ieyasu had grasped in his dream?Original
Or perhaps the very man who wrote this letter had already laid his fingers upon that character.OriginalOriginal
Please consult the original page images for this source.
Open the original page at the National Diet Library| Source text | Kinsei Nihon kokuminshi, The Situation before Perry’s Arrival (1929). National Diet Library Digital Collections (PDM). PID 3431221 |
| Checked against | Ishin shiryō kōyō, vol. 1 (1937). PID 1046665 |
| Dates and names | All 4 dates in the text exist in the calendar for their year, and the Western years given alongside them agree. Of the 5 people named in the text, 4 also appear in Ishin shiryō kōyō, vol. 1. |
| English gates | 135 of 135 sentences passed the checks on the English text. |
This article is a reading of Kinsei Nihon kokuminshi, The Situation before Perry’s Arrival. Tokutomi Sohō’s views are those of the 1920s and 1930s and may differ from current scholarship. The source text is a century old and may differ from current scholarship.
