Abe Masahiro, a senior councilor of the shogunate, had received word that an American ship would come the following year. On the 2nd day of the 11th month of Kaei 5 (1852), Shimazu Nariakira wrote a letter to his younger brother Shimazu Hisamitsu at the Satsuma domain residence in Edo. He says that the rumor caused little stir among the public, and it seemed only the senior councilors were worried. He also wrote that although he had been told of the concerns by Abe, no decision had yet been reached in the deliberations.
Tokutomi Sohō sees it that advance word of the visitors had already arrived. Some took the arrival at Uraga as a sudden event, but Abe, he says, had been well aware of it. Sohō gives four reasons why those who knew did not act. That only a very few knew and were half in doubt, and that they could not read the other side’s aims. Further, that people counted on things working out when the time came, and that the mood of the age was intoxicated with peace.
Matsudaira Yoshinaga judged Shogun Tokugawa Ieyoshi to be mediocre and not fit to be shogun. Sohō touches on how Ieyoshi gained two senior councilors, Mizuno Tadakuni and Abe. He says it was fortunate that the order was such that a spring breeze came after a harsh frost. Among the three, Abe, Mizuno Tadakuni, and Ii Naosuke, Sohō’s view places Abe first. He also writes that Mizuno tried to govern the realm over the daimyo, while Abe tried to govern together with the daimyo.
It was Yoshinaga who brought Abe and Nariakira together. Mizuno had said Satsuma could not be let off guard—what did Abe think? This was Abe’s private consultation. After meeting at the Echizen residence, Abe was glad that he had avoided a misunderstanding. The two eventually joined hands, and the political marriage of Tokugawa Iesada and Shimazu Atsuko also came about. Abe ordered the Mito house to build a Western-style warship at Tsukudajima, and laughed off voices complaining of the expense.
On the 2nd day of the 2nd month of Kaei 6 (1853), Nariakira also wrote to Shimazu Hisataka, the chief retainer in the domain (a senior retainer entrusted with domain administration at home). In the judgment of Tsutsui Masanori, a capable official of the shogunate, if trade were permitted, Russia and Britain and France too would press their demands. If disputes mounted, there would be nothing to do but fight. Tsutsui worried that preparations were insufficient, and Nariakira wrote that he was of exactly the same mind. He also stated that warships were indeed the best policy, but that this was blocked by finance officials who disliked the expense and so did not go through.
On the court side, relief for court nobles of scant income had been quietly brought to the senior councilors. On the 5th day of the 12th month of Kaei 5, they also asked that 30,000 ryō be handed over as a loan, to be relieved by yearly interest. This too was not carried out, and it was settled on the 12th day of the 8th month of Ansei 6 by a gift of 20,000 ryō. Sohō sees Abe as having had skill in domestic governance, but lacking the capacity to change secret policy. While foreseeing the arrival of foreign ships, he did not make it public, and the advance word remained sealed away as it was.
What was known and what was held back in Edo from Kaei 5 into 6 can be traced through the letters Shimazu Nariakira sent to Shimazu Hisamitsu and Shimazu Hisataka, the account of Ichiki Shirō in Kaikyū kiji, the Nabeshima Naomasa-kō Den, and Sohō’s assessment.
The second day of the eleventh month of Kaei 5 (1852).Original
At the Satsuma domain residence in Edo, Shimazu Nariakira took up his brush.Original
The letter was addressed to his younger brother Hisamitsu, who was in Kagoshima.OriginalOriginal
“There is somehow a rumor that America will come next year, but the world at large does not speak of it particularly.”Original
There was some rumor that an American ship would come next year, but it was said that the world was not making much fuss over it.Original
Nariakira then continues.Original
“The senior councilors seem quite worried about it.”Original
The senior councilors appeared quite worried, and when he met with senior councilor Abe Masahiro, he too was told of this concern.Original
However, “the deliberations have not yet been settled” — nothing had yet been decided in council.OriginalOriginal
Tokutomi Sohō quotes this passage and writes as follows.Original
“The advance notice of the guest’s coming had already arrived.”Original
Some people thought of the American ships’ arrival at Uraga as a bolt from the blue, but that was only talk among the common people; Abe and others “knew it only too well,” he writes.OriginalOriginal
人或は米艦が浦賀に來つたのは、靑天の霹靂であるかの如く思うてゐる。然もそれは市井の民衆には、或は其通りであつたであらうが、幕府の當局者たる阿部などは、百も承知の事であつた
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryThis letter becomes one key to this chapter.Original
Why did those who knew not act?Original
Winter Days Are to Be Cherished
Tokutomi Sohō records that between the Kōka and Kaei eras, quite a number of remarkable figures emerged in Japan.Original
Among the daimyo were Tokugawa Nariaki, Shimazu Nariakira, Date Munenari, Yamauchi Toyoshige, Nabeshima Narimasa, and Matsudaira Yoshinaga.Original
Matsudaira Yoshinaga of Echizen himself lists them this way in the *Itsuji shiho*, adding, “these are all men with whom I am well acquainted.”OriginalOriginal
Please consult the original page images for this source.
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryWith so many such men gathered, why was no great policy toward the outside world ever settled?Original
Tokutomi Sohō gives four reasons.Original
Only a very few in positions of authority knew of the warnings, and even that few were half in doubt.Original
No one could judge whether the foreigners’ aim was peaceful trade or conquest.Original
People relied on the unreliable notion that things would somehow work out when the time came.
And the atmosphere of the age was drunk on peace, so that “the wise were instead ruled by the foolish.”Original
Tokutomi Sohō writes that the root of this affliction was that the time had come for the reckoning of generations of seclusion policy and secrecy policy.OriginalOriginal
Regarding shogun Tokugawa Ieyoshi, Yoshinaga is harsh.Original
“Lord Shintoku, Lord Ieyoshi, was a mediocre ruler, lacking the capacity of a shogun, and was made a fool of by senior councilor Mizuno Echizen no kami.”Original
That is to say, he was mediocre and unfit to be shogun, and was made light of by senior councilor Mizuno Tadakuni.Original
Tokutomi Sohō adds, however, that if one let Mizuno hear this, he would surely argue that “it was not necessarily so.”OriginalOriginal
Throughout the two hundred and sixty years of the Tokugawa, Ieyoshi obtained two senior councilors of note.Original
Earlier, Mizuno Tadakuni; later, Abe Masahiro.Original
“The former is to be feared as a summer day; the latter is to be cherished as a winter day.”Original
It was fortunate, in terms of sequence, that the spring breeze came after the severe frost, he says.OriginalOriginal
Comparing those before and after Abe, one has Mizuno Tadakuni and Ii Naosuke.Original
Tokutomi Sohō ranks the three, placing Abe first, Mizuno second, and Ii third.Original
Mizuno’s work was exhilarating, but it had the unnatural air of “one building a miniature garden.”Original
Ii mistakenly won renown in the realm, but he dismisses him as having neither statecraft, insight, nor ability.Original
There were also objections to Abe’s path of advancement and to his conciliatory measures aimed at winning favor with the Ōoku.Original
Even so, Tokutomi Sohō concludes that among those of lineage fit to become senior councilor, there was probably no one to match Abe.OriginalOriginal
An Evening at the Echizen Residence
Tokutomi Sohō sums up the difference between Mizuno and Abe in a single phrase.Original
“Should one govern the realm together with the daimyo, or should one govern the realm against the daimyo?”Original
Mizuno chose “against”; Abe chose “together with.”OriginalOriginal
Mizuno kept his distance from Tokugawa Nariaki, prolonging his stay in his home domain, and was wary of Satsuma, warning that “whoever proves disadvantageous to the Tokugawa house in later days will surely be the Shimazu.”Original
Abe, on the contrary, sought to win over the powerful daimyo and combine their strength to prolong the life of the shogunate.Original
“He was a compromiser, and indeed a truly great compromiser,” Tokutomi Sohō writes.OriginalOriginal
Tokutomi Sohō quotes from Ichiki Shirō’s account in the *Kaikyū kiji* the circumstances by which Abe and Nariakira came together.Original
The go-between was Matsudaira Yoshinaga.Original
One day, Abe spoke to Yoshinaga in confidence.Original
Mizuno had said that “Satsuma cannot be let off guard, and one must be wary of it”—what did Yoshinaga think of that?Original
Yoshinaga replied.Original
“The Lord of Satsuma is by no means a man who would ever plot against the interests of the Tokugawa house.”Original
The Lord of Satsuma was by no means the sort of man to scheme against the interests of the Tokugawa house.Original
He then proposed that one evening he would invite Abe to his private residence so that he might meet him.OriginalOriginal
The meeting took place at the Echizen residence.Original
“Indeed, just as you said, he is a man who will prove of service.”Original
Indeed, just as had been said, he was a man useful to the Tokugawa house.Original
Had he listened only to Mizuno’s words, there would have been “a terrible mistake”; he was grateful to have been made aware, saying “I am greatly pleased.”Original
When Yoshinaga conveyed this matter to Nariakira, Nariakira too was delighted that Abe had come to realize it, and said as follows.Original
That one must never act against the interests of the Tokugawa house was “a precept handed down from the ancestors of the Shimazu house,” and such a thing could never possibly happen.Original
Ichiki notes that this was probably around the beginning of Kōka.OriginalOriginal
From then on the two joined hands, and in time the political marriage of Tokugawa Iesada and Shimazu Atsuko came about.Original
Had Abe on one side and Nariakira on the other allied to handle affairs at home and abroad, the history of the shogunate’s final years might have turned out somewhat differently.
“Yet Heaven did not lend these two men years.”OriginalOriginal
Nariakira was about twenty years older than Yoshinaga.Original
The *Sakumu Kiji* records that Yoshinaga, from his youth, had looked up to Nariakira—a man before whom “there was none, whether lord or senior councilor, who did not feel awe and reserve”—and that the two “consulted with each other on matters of the realm and of their domains alike.”OriginalOriginal
薩州侯松平薩摩守齊彬は、御大身といひ、謀慮深遠、英邁にして、奸雄の才逞しき御方なりければ、列侯を初、閣老衆とても、畏憚せずといふ事なし。公(慶永)よりは二十計の御長者なれば、公にも賴もしく思召て、御若年の頃より殊に親しくせさせ給ひ、侯(齊彬)にも大方ならず、公(慶永)を依賴し給ひて、天下の事も、國家の事も互に謀りものし給へり
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryThe warship at Tsukudajima
Tokutomi Sohō summarizes Abe’s administration in the article “Shokuyakuki” published in the magazine *Edo*.Original
Having become senior councilor in Tenpō 14, he took over after Mizuno’s reforms, “did away with harsh complexity,” lifted the ban on building large ships to build up the navy, established the Kōbusho and the Bansho Shirabesho, and encouraged the study of Western gunnery.Original
He was gentle and virtuous in bearing, and when dealing with people he softened his expression and let them speak their minds fully.Original
Abroad, he won the goodwill of the powerful domains and relied on their help.OriginalOriginal
天保十四年老中に任ず。水野忠邦革弊の後をうけて首として繁苛を除き時と休息し又大船製造の禁を解きて海軍を興し講武所蕃書調所を設け大に洋砲の術を奬勵せしが如きは其事業の最も見るべきもの也
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryThe same article carries one anecdote.Original
Abe ordered the Mito house to build a Western-style warship at Tsukudajima.Original
Someone said to him:
It is a pity to spend such vast sums at a time when the state faces so many troubles.Original
Abe answered with a laugh:Original
There is a saying that “the lion, given a ball, plays with it.”Original
If we do not give it this room to play, the lion may grow angry and turn on people.Original
“Tens of thousands of gold pieces are by no means too much to spare.”OriginalOriginal
Sohō calls this a politics that understood “the reason why one gives in order to take.”Original
He writes that both the Mito house’s internal strife and Satsuma’s owed much to Abe’s mediation “in the realm of the unseen,” and that there was more than one occasion when both Nariaki and Nariakira could not hold their heads up before Abe.OriginalOriginal
Abe did not believe that the policy of joining hands alone would achieve his aims.Original
Sohō assesses that Abe tried to gather the realm’s powerful men around the shogunate’s center by the bonds of profit and sentiment, and “succeeded in this to a certain degree.”OriginalOriginal
The second day of the second month of Kaei 6
There is yet another letter foretelling events.Original
On the second day of the second month of Kaei 6 (1853), Nariakira wrote a letter to his domain’s chief retainer, Shimazu Hisataka.OriginalOriginal
Nothing had yet been announced concerning the American matter, but the construction work at Uraga was said to be in full swing.Original
When he privately inquired of the shogunate’s able official Tsutsui Masanori, this was the assessment given.Original
Permission for commerce (trade) would not be granted.Original
If it were granted to America, it would also have to be granted to Russia, which had made its request in previous years, and since Britain and France too had made requests, they would certainly press their claims.Original
“Once the demands mount, there will be nothing for it but war.”Original
If the disputes grow more insistent, nothing remains but war, he said.Original
As for preparations at that time, Tsutsui said that many people held that the “authority of the shogunate” alone could deal with barbarians of that sort, and that it was deeply worrying that adequate defenses were lacking.Original
Nariakira writes that he agreed entirely, calling it “an utterly reasonable view.”OriginalOriginal
The same letter also touches on Abe.Original
It seems Abe thought likewise, but being pressed by the many, matters naturally tended to be put off.Original
With gun batteries alone, even if they won the first clash, they could not pursue and finish the enemy.Original
The best policy would be warships, but among the finance officials there were many ignorant of the true state of foreign affairs, who begrudged the expense and invoked the “great prohibition” on large ships, so the plan did not go through.Original
“It is most regrettable,” Nariakira writes.OriginalOriginal
Reading this, Sohō remarks, “one can well imagine how troubled Abe Masahiro must have been.”OriginalOriginal
The *Nabeshima Naomasa-kō Den* depicts the same picture.Original
Yet the ordinary populace remained “blind and deaf at the bottom of national seclusion.”Original
The American government, angered by the treatment of shipwrecked fishermen, had the previous year had President Fillmore decide to dispatch a warship specially, and Russia too had decided to send an envoy to Nagasaki.Original
Abe and the others must have secretly put their heads together to plan countermeasures.Original
But the same book records that shogunate officials, in a state of “somnolence,” remained sunk in old habits, bound by the shogunate’s dignity and prestige, and out of stinginess in expenditure even cut back the coastal defense works at Edo.OriginalOriginal
然るに米國政府は、二年前我邦に漂著したる漁船二艘の殘酷の待遇を受けたるを忿怒し、日本政府を嚴責して交通の便を開くべし、若し聽かずんば砲擊して各港を封鎖するか、若くは英佛と連合して銷國の陋習を撤せしむべしとまで激昂し、去年遂に大統領フイルモーアは使節の軍艦を日本に特派するに決したり。又魯西亞も、使節の軍艦を遣はし、我長崎に到りて要求するところあらんと、此頃已に決定しゐたり
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryThe private talk of thirty thousand ryō
In the same chapter, Sohō also turns his gaze to the court’s side.Original
“In the deep green shade of the great pine tree dwells a crane—might it be a friend for a thousand ages?”Original
Attached were poems by thirty-nine people, including Regent Takatsukasa Masamichi, Minister of the Left Kujō Hisatada, and Minister of the Right Konoe Tadahiro.Original
The court liaisons to the shogunate, Sanjō Sanetsumu and Bōjō Toshiaki, went down to Edo, also serving as the New Year envoys.Original
Sohō writes that the forms of over two hundred years still continued unshaken.OriginalOriginal
While in Edo, the two, through the Kyoto shoshidai Wakisaka Yasuori, brought a private matter to the senior councilors.Original
It concerned relief for the impoverished court nobles of low stipend.Original
The document stated as follows.Original
“The court noble houses of small stipend and poverty find it difficult even to get through today’s household finances.”Original
The court noble houses of small stipend and poverty found it difficult even to manage their day-to-day livelihood.Original
Because of this, “their aspirations too became wholly focused on gain,” and some fell out of step with the spirit of proper guidance, which was a matter of deep concern.OriginalOriginal
Sohō lays out the figures.Original
Even the Konoe house, foremost among the five regental houses, held only 2,860 koku.Original
The Kujō house held 2,043 koku, the Nijō house 1,708 koku, the Ichijō house 2,044 koku, and the Takatsukasa house 1,500 koku.Original
Sanjō Sanetsumu’s stipend was four hundred sixty-nine koku.Original
In an age when chief retainers of great domains commanded stipends too numerous to count at ten thousand koku, and some chief retainers even held fifty thousand koku, the emperor’s own domain amounted to no more than thirty thousand koku and a small amount of silver.Original
A satirical verse of the time went: “Even three mon, a Tenpō coin from Nashinoki-chō — loyalty is something well understood.”Original
Tokutomi Sohō writes that this financial weakness was precisely what the shogunate exploited most.OriginalOriginal
It seems the shogunate declined this request for some reason.Original
On the fifth day of the twelfth month of Kaei 5 (1852), the court once again instructed Wakisaka.Original
“Thirty thousand gold pieces are to be presented, and this sum is further to be lent out, so that the interest accrued each year may be offered as relief.”Original
Present thirty thousand ryō, lend it out, and let the yearly interest provide relief, it said.Original
This too was not carried out.
At last, on the twelfth day of the eighth month of Ansei 6 (1859), the matter was settled with a gift of twenty thousand ryō.Original
Tokutomi Sohō writes, “The shogunate’s conduct toward the court can by no means be called generous,” and adds at the same time that it was “truly pitiful” that the court had to beg for mercy in this way.OriginalOriginal
幕府の朝廷に對する、决して篤しと云ふ可らずだ。さはあれ朝廷の側に於ても、幕府に向て、此の如く憐を乞はねばならぬとは、如何にも情けない次第と云はねばならぬ
Open the original page at the National Diet LibraryKnowing, Yet Unable to Act
That same court, when it came to foreign relations, made demands of the shogunate.Original
The men of the military houses, in dealing with matters of the West, were not to slight a small foe nor fear a great one, but to lay their plans well, so that it would not become “a blemish upon the divine land” — a wound upon the nation.OriginalOriginal
Had such an admonition ever appeared in the days of Ieyasu or Iemitsu?Original
Had it appeared in the days of Tsunayoshi or Yoshimune?Original
Here, he says, the “fundamental principle of the Tokugawa shogunate system” — that all matters of domestic and foreign governance were entrusted to it by the court — showed the first signs of collapse.Original
Abe accepted the court’s interference in foreign affairs and even reported to the throne on the state of foreign ships’ arrivals, yet he “failed to notice” the need to change his former stance toward the court.Original
Sohō writes that he “cannot help but regret this on Abe’s behalf.”OriginalOriginal
Sohō describes Abe’s character thus.Original
“He lacked the vigor and fortitude to hold firm, but he was generous and fair, possessed of a breadth of spirit able to accommodate others.”Original
He had no skill in commanding great men, but he had the polished ability to draw them close and win their trust.Original
In matters of domestic governance he displayed skill that left almost nothing to be regretted.OriginalOriginal
But he lacked the boldness and insight to overturn secret policy.Original
Nor did he have the statesmanship to override the discordant opinions of the many and fix the nation’s policy.Original
Though he anticipated the arrival of foreign ships, he lacked the “workings of a great statesman” needed to make this known to the realm and prepare together with it.Original
And so, “as the worn-out vessel raced swiftly down the rapids toward the brink of the waterfall’s basin, there was nothing to do but sit and watch.”Original
Sohō writes that this was regrettable not only for Abe alone but for Japan as well, and adds further that it may have been unreasonable to place the blame on Abe alone.OriginalOriginal
Matsudaira Yoshinaga left in the Itsuji shiho a memory from his childhood days.Original
At six or seven years of age, at the Tayasu residence, he asked a renowned monk a question.Original
When the shogun does wrong, who scolds him?Original
The emperor scolds him, the monk answered.Original
And if the emperor does wrong?Original
The Chinese scold him, he said.Original
In the Meiji era, Yoshinaga called this a “record of things to come.”OriginalOriginal
予(松永慶永)六七歲の頃は、未だ田安の邸にありしころ、ある名僧あり。予この僧にきくに天下樣(將軍)あしきときは、天子樣しかるとこたふ。天子樣あしければ、唐人(外國人)がしかるとこたふ。今(明治の初期)を以て之をみれば、未來記とも云ふ可きなり。(逸事史補
Open the original page at the National Diet LibrarySohō says that Abe emerged precisely in such an age.Original
Resolved that power alone could not sustain the shogunate, he gathered men with a gentle spring breeze of manner.Original
But he did not share what he knew with the realm.Original
That single line Shimazu Nariakira had written to his younger brother in the eleventh month of Kaei 5 (1852) — that deliberations had not yet been settled — was it not carried, unchanged, all the way to Uraga?
The forewarning had arrived.Original
Yet, having arrived, it remained shut away.Original
| Source text | Kinsei Nihon kokuminshi, The Situation before Perry’s Arrival (1929). National Diet Library Digital Collections (PDM). PID 3431221 |
| Checked against | Ishin shiryō kōyō, vol. 1 (1937). PID 1046665 |
| Dates and names | All 5 dates in the text exist in the calendar for their year, and the Western years given alongside them agree. Of the 17 people named in the text, 17 also appear in Ishin shiryō kōyō, vol. 1. |
| English gates | 161 of 161 sentences passed the checks on the English text. |
This article is a reading of Kinsei Nihon kokuminshi, The Situation before Perry’s Arrival. Tokutomi Sohō’s views are those of the 1920s and 1930s and may differ from current scholarship. The source text is a century old and may differ from current scholarship.
